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New home construction today is giving buyers something it feels like they haven’t gotten much lately: a real shot at both the home they want and the deal they need.
This May Be the Best Time To Buy a Brand-New Home
The 3 Housing Market Questions Coming Up at Every Gathering This Season
Whether it’s at a family gathering, your company party, or catching up with friends over the holidays, the housing market always finds its way into the conversation.
Why Buying a Home Still Pays Off in the Long Run
Renting can feel much less expensive and much simpler than buying a home, especially right now.
Would You Let $80 a Month Hold You Back from Buying a Home?
A lot of buyers are stuck in “wait and see” mode right now. They’re watching rates hover a little above 6% and thinking, I’ll buy once they hit the 5s. Because who doesn’t want a better rate?
But here’s the thing: that 5.99% number might not save you as much as you think.
Affordability is still a challenge. There’s no question about that. But the market has given savvy buyers a head start. Mortgage rates have already come down over the past few months. And the drop we’ve seen saves you more than you’d think.
How Much You’ve Already Saved, Without Realizing It
Let’s put some real numbers to it. Rates peaked for the year in May when they inched above 7%. But since then, they’ve been slowly declining. Now, they’re sitting in the low 6s. And while that may not sound like a big deal, that change translates to real dollars.
According to data coming out of Redfin, the typical monthly payment on a $400,000 home is already down almost $400 since May.
That means if you’re buying a home now, you’re saving hundreds of dollars every month compared to what you would have been able to get earlier this spring. That’s real money that makes a real difference for buyers who paused their plans because they thought homeownership was out of reach.
And while it may be tempting to wait even longer to see bigger savings, that’s a gamble that could cost you. Here’s why.
Where Experts Say Rates Are Headed
For starters, most experts say mortgage rates are likely to stay pretty much where we are today throughout 2026. So, there’s no guarantee we’ll see a rate much lower than what we have now. Only one expert forecaster is saying rates could fall into the upper 5s next year (see graph below):
And even if rates do dip below 6%, the extra savings you’re holding out for won’t move the needle as much as you might expect.
The Real Math Behind a 5.99% Rate
Let’s break it down. If rates come down to 5.99% from where they’ve been lately that’s a difference of only about $80 a month on an average priced home – give or take a bit based on your price point and the rate your lender quotes you (see chart below):
Eighty dollars. That’s it. And for the typical family, that’s about one dinner out (or one dinner in, if you have it delivered). That’s not enough to change the game for most buyers. But the savings of nearly $400 we already have compared to when you paused your search in the spring? That might be.
So, the question to ask yourself is this:
Is an extra $80 savings really worth the wait?
Because while you’re holding out for that small dip, the bigger opportunity might be slipping away.
When Rates Fall, Competition Follows
Right now, you have more homes to choose from, sellers who are ready to negotiate to get a deal done, and fewer buyers to compete with. But once rates fall below 6%, buyer mindsets will shift and all of that will change.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports that if rates hit 6%, about 5.5 million more households will be able to afford the median-priced home. Even if only a small fraction of them decide to buy, that could mean hundreds of thousands of buyers getting back into the market.
That creates more competition for you, which would push home prices even higher – maybe high enough to cancel out the extra savings you waited for.
So, if you’re waiting for rates below 6%, just keep in mind… that extra $80 may not be worth it in the grand scheme of things.
Bottom Line
You don’t have to wait for 5.99%. You have the chance to move (and save) right now. So, ask yourself: Would you let $80 hold you back from buying a home?
If you find a home you love and the math makes sense, getting ahead may be the best strategy. Connect with an agent or lender to run your numbers. That way you can see what you’re working with in your market.
The $280 Shift in Affordability Every Homebuyer Should Know
If you paused your plans to move because of high rates or prices, it may finally be time to take a second look at your numbers. Affordability is improving in 39 of the top 50 markets, according to First American. And that’s the 5th straight month where buying a home has started to get a little bit easier.
Let’s break this down into real dollars, so you can see the difference this could make for you (and your move).
Monthly Payments Are Coming Down
One of the clearest signs of this shift is in monthly payments. The latest data from Redfin shows mortgage payments on a median-priced home are now $283 lower than they were just a few months ago (see graph below):
This kind of monthly savings adds up fast, and totals nearly $3,400 over the course of a year.
While this isn’t enough to completely change the affordability game overnight, think about it this way. When you’re putting together a homebuying budget, a few hundred dollars could be the difference between being comfortable buying and feeling like money’s a bit tight.
And from a home-search perspective, it could even be enough to change the price point you can look at. According to Redfin:
“A borrower with a $3,000 monthly budget can now afford a $468,000 home, about $22,000 more than in June.”
And that’s a big deal if you haven’t found a home you love in your price range yet. It gives you a little more flexibility to find the one that’s right for you.
Either way, that’s a big win.
What’s Behind the Shift?
Two key factors are working in your favor right now:
- Mortgage rates have eased from their high earlier this year
- Home price growth is slowing in many markets
Both of those things help your bottom line and give you a bit of breathing room if you’re buying a home. As Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE Mortgage Technology, says:
“The recent pullback in rates has created a tailwind for both homebuyers and existing borrowers. We’re seeing affordability at a 2.5-year high . . .”
Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer or someone looking to move-up into a bigger house, the shifts happening this year could make your move possible. Connect with a trusted agent or lender to see what your monthly payment would look like at today’s rates.
For you, the savings could be the difference between “not yet” and “let’s go.”
Bottom Line
Affordability is improving in many markets. And that resets the math on your move.
If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines, this is your cue to start looking again. Connect with a local agent or trusted lender to run the numbers together so you can get a rough estimate of how much more buying power you may have than you did just a few months ago.
Why More Buyers Are Turning to New Construction This Year
There’s a trend taking hold in real estate right now: more buyers are choosing newly built homes. And it’s not just about getting the latest technology or modern floorplans. It’s because they may be able to get a better deal.
Builders are offering serious incentives today, and people are jumping on them. In fact, new home sales just hit their highest level in over two years (see graph below):
Why Builders Are Throwing in Perks
There are more newly built homes for sale right now than there have been in years. And as a buyer, that can help you in two big ways. It gives you more options to choose from on the market, and it motivates builders to sell their inventory before they build more.
That’s exactly why more buyers are scoring incentives like these:
- Mortgage rate buydowns to shrink your monthly payment
- Price cuts that make homeownership more attainable
- Help with closing costs and even upgrades in some communities
The best part is, a lot of builders are offering these perks right now. According to Zonda, nearly 6 out of 10 new home communities are doing incentives on to-be-built homes. And over 75% are doing the same for quick move-ins, which are homes that are already built and ready to move into. As real estate analyst Nick Gerli explains:
“. . . builders are adjusting to the realities of the current housing market. They’ve cut prices 13 percent from peak, and are giving generous mortgage rate buydowns on top of that.”
The big takeaway is: builders are motivated to sell. So, you could snag a lower price and maybe even a lower mortgage rate if you buy new. If you’ve been feeling priced out, these offers might be your way back in.
You Have More Brand-New Options Than Normal
Since there are more new homes on the market than usual, that gives you more options than you’ve had in years. Whether you’re looking for something turnkey or want to personalize a build, odds are there’s more available near you than you may realize.
Even though the number of new homes for sale is up throughout the country, there are pockets where you have an even better chance to find a better price. According to Census data, here’s a high-level look at which parts of the country are seeing the biggest boost in newly built homes (see graph below):
Both the South and West have more new homes available, so you may find builders are even more willing to negotiate in these regions.
Just know that this opportunity won’t last forever. Recent data shows builders are slowing down their production efforts. And a lot of that is to avoid having too many homes for sale. As Robert Dietz, Chief Economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), explains:
“The slowdown in single-family home building has narrowed the home building pipeline. There are currently 621,000 single-family homes under construction, down 1% in July and 3.7% lower than a year ago. This is the lowest level since early 2021 as builders pull back on supply.”
Moving forward, the number of new options may start to shrink as builders focus more on selling what’s already built before they add more. So, the best time in years to buy a new home may actually be right now.
Bottom Line
With builders cutting prices and maybe even helping you score a lower monthly payment, that’s not something to overlook.
If you want to see how active builders are in your target area and what they’re offering, here’s your power move: before you even begin looking, connect with your own agent.
That way, you have someone to help you compare incentives from multiple builders and negotiate on your behalf, making sure you get the best deal possible.
Why Experts Say Mortgage Rates Should Ease Over the Next Year
You want mortgage rates to fall – and they’ve started to. But is it going to last? And how low will they go?
Experts say there’s room for rates to come down even more over the next year. And one of the leading indicators to watch is the 10-year treasury yield. Here’s why.
The Link Between Mortgage Rates and the 10-Year Treasury Yield
For over 50 years, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has closely followed the movement of the 10-year treasury yield, which is a widely watched benchmark for long-term interest rates (see graph below):
When the treasury yield climbs, mortgage rates tend to follow. And when the yield falls, mortgage rates typically come down.
It’s been a predictable pattern for over 50 years. So predictable, that there’s a number experts consider normal for the gap between the two. It’s known as the spread, and it usually averages about 1.76 percentage points, or what you sometimes hear as 176 basis points.
The Spread Is Shrinking
Over the past couple of years, though, that spread has been much wider than normal. Why? Think of the spread as a measure of fear in the market. When there’s lingering uncertainty in the economy, the gap widens beyond its usual norm. That’s one of the reasons why mortgage rates have been unusually high over the past few years.
But here’s a sign for optimism. Even though there’s still some lingering uncertainty related to the economy, that spread is starting to shrink as the path forward is becoming clearer (see graph below):
And that opens the door for mortgage rates to come down even more. As a recent article from Redfin explains:
“A lower mortgage spread equals lower mortgage rates. If the spread continues to decline, mortgage rates could fall more than they already have.”
The 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Expected To Decline
It’s not just the spread, though. The 10-year treasury yield itself is also forecast to come down in the months ahead. So, when you combine a lower yield with a narrowing spread, you have two key forces potentially pushing mortgage rates down going into next year.
This long-term relationship is a big reason why you see experts currently projecting mortgage rates will ease, with a fringe possibility they’ll hit the upper 5s toward the end of next year.
Here’s how it works. Take the 10-year treasury yield, which is sitting at about 4.09% at the time this article is being written, and then add the average spread of 1.76%. From there, you’d expect mortgage rates to be around 5.85% (see graph below):
But remember, all of that can change as the economy shifts. And know for certain that there will be ups and downs along the way.
How these dynamics play out will depend on where the economy, the job market, inflation, and more go from here. But the 2026 outlook is currently expected to be a gradual mortgage rate decline. And as of now, things are starting to move in the right direction.
Bottom Line
Keeping up with all of these shifts can feel overwhelming. That’s why having an experienced agent or lender on your side matters. They’ll do the heavy lifting for you.
If you want real-time updates on mortgage rates, reach out to a trusted agent or lender who can keep you in the loop and help you plan your next move.
What Buyers Say They Need Most (And How the Market’s Responding)
A recent survey from Bank of America asked would-be homebuyers what would help them feel better about making a move, and it’s no surprise the answers have a clear theme. They want affordability to improve, specifically prices and rates (see below):
Here’s the good news. While the broader economy may still feel uncertain, there are signs the housing market is showing some changes in both of those areas. Let’s break it down so you know what you’re working with.
Prices Are Moderating
Over the past few years, home prices climbed fast, sometimes so fast it left many buyers feeling shut out. But today, that pace has slowed down. For comparison, from 2020 to 2021, prices rose by 20% in a 12-month period. Now? Nationally, experts are projecting single-digit increases this year – a much more normal pace.
That’s a sharp contrast to the rapid growth we saw just a few short years ago. Just remember, price trends are going to vary by area. In some markets, prices will continue to rise while others will experience slight declines.
Prices aren’t crashing, but they are moderating. For buyers, the slowdown makes buying a home a bit less intimidating. It’s easier to plan your budget when home values are moving at a much slower pace.
Mortgage Rates Are Easing
At the same time, rates have come down from their recent highs. And that’s taken some pressure off would-be homebuyers. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says:
“Slower price growth coupled with a slight drop in mortgage rates will improve affordability and create a window for some buyers to get into the market.”
Even a small drop in mortgage rates can mean a big difference in what you pay each month in your future mortgage payment. Just remember, while rates have come down a bit lately, they’re going to experience some volatility. So don’t get too caught up in the ups and downs.
The overall trend in the year ahead is that rates are expected to stay in the low to mid-6s – which is a lot better than where they were just a few short months ago. They may even drop further, depending on where the economy goes from here.
Why This Matters
Confidence in the economy may be low, but the housing market is showing signs of adjustment. Prices are moderating, and rates have come down from their highs.
For you, that may not solve affordability challenges altogether, but it does mean conditions look a little different than they did earlier this year. And those shifts could help you re-engage as we move into next year.
Bottom Line
Both of the top concerns for buyers are seeing some movement. Prices are moderating. Rates are easing. And both trends could stick around going into 2026.
If you’re considering a move, connect with a local real estate agent to walk you through what’s happening in your area – and what it means for your plans.
3 Reasons Affordability Is Showing Signs of Improvement This Fall
For the past couple of years, it’s been tough for a lot of homebuyers to make the numbers work. Home prices shot up. Mortgage rates too. And a number of people hit pause because it just didn’t feel possible. Maybe you were one of them.
But there’s some encouraging news. If you’ve been waiting for a better time to jump back in, affordability may finally be showing signs of improvement this fall.
The latest data from Redfin shows the typical monthly mortgage payment has been coming down, and is now about $290 lower than it was just a few months ago (see graph below):
And here’s why this is happening. The cost of buying a home really comes down to three things:
- Mortgage rates
- Home prices
- Your wages
Right now, all three are finally moving in a better direction for you. While that doesn’t mean it’s suddenly easy to buy at today’s rates and prices, it does mean it’s not as challenging.
1. Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates have come down compared to earlier this year. In May, they were roughly 7%. And now, they’re closer to 6.3% (see graph below):
That may not sound like a big deal, but it does matter. Even small changes in rates can make a difference in your future monthly payment. Compared to when rates were 7%, if you take out an average $400K mortgage now at 6.3%, it’ll cost about $190 less a month based on just rates alone.
And for some people, that’s been enough to make buying a home possible again. As Joel Kan, VP and Deputy Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), explained on September 10th:
“The downward rate movement spurred the strongest week of borrower demand since 2022 . . . Purchase applications increased to the highest level since July and continued to run more than 20 percent ahead of last year’s pace.”
2. Home Prices
After several years of prices rising very rapidly, price growth has finally slowed. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, puts it:
“National home price growth remains positive, but muted — low single digits — and we expect this trend to continue in the second half of the year.”
For buyers, that’s actually a big relief. That moderation makes it easier to plan your budget. And in some markets, prices have even dipped slightly. If you’re in one of the markets, you may be able to find something that’s more affordable than you’d expect.
3. Wages
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), wages are up near 4% annually. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains why that number is so important right now:
“Wage growth is now comfortably outpacing home price growth, and buyers have more choices.”
In other words, the typical paycheck is rising faster than home prices right now, which helps make buying a little more affordable. Now, it’s not a big difference, but in a market like this, every bit counts.
What This Means for You
Lower rates, slower price growth, and stronger wages might be enough to make the numbers finally work for you this fall.
While affordability is still tight, it’s a little easier on your wallet to buy now than it was just few months ago. Remember, data from Redfin shows the typical monthly mortgage payment is already around $290 lower than it was earlier this year.
Bottom Line
Have you been wondering if it’s worth taking another look at buying?
Work with a professional to re-run the numbers. Together you can go over your budget, see what’s changed, and figure out if this fall is the time to turn window-shopping into key-turning.
What a Fed Rate Cut Could Mean for Mortgage Rates
The Federal Reserve (the Fed) meets this week, and expectations are high that they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate. But does that mean mortgage rates will drop? Let’s clear up the confusion.
The Fed Doesn’t Directly Set Mortgage Rates
Right now, all eyes are on the Fed. Most economists expect they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate at their mid-September meeting to try to head off a potential recession.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are already betting on it. There’s virtually a 100% chance of a September cut. And based on what we know now, there’s about a 92% chance it’ll be a small cut (25 basis points) and an 8% chance it will be a bigger cut (50 basis points):
So, what exactly is the Federal Funds Rate? It’s the short-term interest rate banks charge each other. It impacts borrowing costs across the economy, but it’s not the same thing as mortgage rates. Still, the Fed’s actions can shape the direction mortgage rates take next.
Why Markets Already Saw This Cut Coming
Here’s the part that may surprise you. Mortgage rates tend to respond to what the financial markets think the Fed will do, before the Fed officially acts. Basically, when markets anticipate a Fed cut, that outlook gets priced into mortgage rates ahead of time.
That’s exactly what happened after weaker-than-expected jobs reports on August 1 and September 5. Each time, mortgage rates ticked down as financial markets grew more confident a cut was coming soon. And even though inflation rose slightly in the latest CPI report, the Fed is still expected to make a cut.
So, if the Fed goes with a 25-basis point cut, as expected, that’s likely already baked in to current mortgage rates, and we may not see a dramatic drop.
But if they go bigger and drop their Federal Funds Rate by 50 basis points instead, mortgage rates could come down more than they already have.
So, Where Do Mortgage Rates Go from Here?
While the upcoming cut may not move the needle much, many experts expect the Fed could cut the Federal Funds Rate more than once before the end of the year. Of course, that’s if the economy continues to cool (see graph below):
As Sam Williamson, Senior Economist at First American, explains:
“For mortgage rates, investor confidence in a forthcoming rate-cutting cycle could help push borrowing costs lower in the back half of 2025, offering some relief to housing affordability and potentially helping to boost buyer demand and overall market activity.”
If multiple rate cuts happen, or even if markets just believe they will, mortgage rates could ease further in the months ahead. But here’s the catch – all of this depends on how the economy evolves. Surprise inflation data or unexpected shifts could quickly change the outlook.
Bottom Line
Mortgage rates likely won’t drop sharply overnight, and they won’t mirror the Fed’s moves one-for-one. But if the Fed begins a rate-cutting cycle, and markets continue to expect it, mortgage rates could trend lower later this year and into 2026.
If you’ve been waiting and watching the housing market, now’s the time to talk strategy. Even small changes in rates can make a meaningful difference in affordability, and understanding what’s ahead helps you make the best decision for your situation.