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With economic headlines, global events, and near constant talk about affordability, you may be wondering if this is the right time to move.
Wondering If You Should Still Buy a Home Right Now? Here’s What To Keep in Mind.
Thinking About an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage? Here’s What You Need To Know.
If you’ve been looking for a home lately, you’ve probably felt how tough affordability still is.
You Can’t Control What’s Happening with Mortgage Rates. But You Can Control This.
Mortgage rates have been volatile lately. And if you’re thinking about buying a home, that can make it harder to plan.
Why More Homeowners Are Giving Up Their Low Mortgage Rate
If you’re like a lot of homeowners, you’ve probably thought: “I’d like to move… but I don’t want to give up my 3% rate.”
The Housing Market Is Turning a Corner Going into 2026
After several years of high mortgage rates and hesitation from buyers, momentum is quietly building beneath the surface of the housing market.
Would You Let $80 a Month Hold You Back from Buying a Home?
A lot of buyers are stuck in “wait and see” mode right now. They’re watching rates hover a little above 6% and thinking, I’ll buy once they hit the 5s. Because who doesn’t want a better rate?
But here’s the thing: that 5.99% number might not save you as much as you think.
Affordability is still a challenge. There’s no question about that. But the market has given savvy buyers a head start. Mortgage rates have already come down over the past few months. And the drop we’ve seen saves you more than you’d think.
How Much You’ve Already Saved, Without Realizing It
Let’s put some real numbers to it. Rates peaked for the year in May when they inched above 7%. But since then, they’ve been slowly declining. Now, they’re sitting in the low 6s. And while that may not sound like a big deal, that change translates to real dollars.
According to data coming out of Redfin, the typical monthly payment on a $400,000 home is already down almost $400 since May.
That means if you’re buying a home now, you’re saving hundreds of dollars every month compared to what you would have been able to get earlier this spring. That’s real money that makes a real difference for buyers who paused their plans because they thought homeownership was out of reach.
And while it may be tempting to wait even longer to see bigger savings, that’s a gamble that could cost you. Here’s why.
Where Experts Say Rates Are Headed
For starters, most experts say mortgage rates are likely to stay pretty much where we are today throughout 2026. So, there’s no guarantee we’ll see a rate much lower than what we have now. Only one expert forecaster is saying rates could fall into the upper 5s next year (see graph below):
And even if rates do dip below 6%, the extra savings you’re holding out for won’t move the needle as much as you might expect.
The Real Math Behind a 5.99% Rate
Let’s break it down. If rates come down to 5.99% from where they’ve been lately that’s a difference of only about $80 a month on an average priced home – give or take a bit based on your price point and the rate your lender quotes you (see chart below):
Eighty dollars. That’s it. And for the typical family, that’s about one dinner out (or one dinner in, if you have it delivered). That’s not enough to change the game for most buyers. But the savings of nearly $400 we already have compared to when you paused your search in the spring? That might be.
So, the question to ask yourself is this:
Is an extra $80 savings really worth the wait?
Because while you’re holding out for that small dip, the bigger opportunity might be slipping away.
When Rates Fall, Competition Follows
Right now, you have more homes to choose from, sellers who are ready to negotiate to get a deal done, and fewer buyers to compete with. But once rates fall below 6%, buyer mindsets will shift and all of that will change.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports that if rates hit 6%, about 5.5 million more households will be able to afford the median-priced home. Even if only a small fraction of them decide to buy, that could mean hundreds of thousands of buyers getting back into the market.
That creates more competition for you, which would push home prices even higher – maybe high enough to cancel out the extra savings you waited for.
So, if you’re waiting for rates below 6%, just keep in mind… that extra $80 may not be worth it in the grand scheme of things.
Bottom Line
You don’t have to wait for 5.99%. You have the chance to move (and save) right now. So, ask yourself: Would you let $80 hold you back from buying a home?
If you find a home you love and the math makes sense, getting ahead may be the best strategy. Connect with an agent or lender to run your numbers. That way you can see what you’re working with in your market.
Why You Don’t Need To Be Afraid of Today’s Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates have been the monster under the bed for a while. Every time they tick up, people flinch and say, “Maybe I’ll wait.” But here’s the twist. Waiting for that perfect 5-point-something rate could end up haunting your wallet later.
The Magic Number
According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR):
“. . . a 30-year fixed rate mortgage of 6% would make the median-priced home affordable for about 5.5 million more households—including 1.6 million renters. If rates were to hit that magic number, it’s likely that about 10%—or 550,000—of those additional households would buy a home over the next 12 or 18 months.”
When the market hits that mortgage rate sweet spot, as expert forecasters are starting to say is more likely in 2026, the psychological shift to lower rates will kick in for more of today’s hopeful buyers. That will unleash some pent-up demand that’s been waiting on the sidelines, and the increase in activity will cause prices to rise.
And while a 5.99% rate might sound like a big win, if you’re waiting for that number to make your move, it might not actually save you as much as you think. Here’s how the math looks when you run the numbers (see chart below):
On a $400,000 mortgage, the difference between today’s rate (around 6.2%) and 5.99% is roughly $50 a month. That’s less than many people spend on weekly coffee runs or occasional DoorDash orders. And as prices tick up with more buyers in the market, that could quickly negate any of your potential savings.
So, if you’re waiting for 5.99%, that difference might not be worth missing out on today’s opportunities, like having more homes to choose from, better negotiation leverage with today’s sellers, and fewer buyers out there looking for the same houses.
Because the reality is, those benefits start to slip away when more buyers begin to make their moves – and a rate under 6% is exactly they’re waiting for.
Why Acting Now Makes Sense
Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist and VP of Research at NAR, says:
“Over the last 5 weeks, mortgage rates have averaged 6.31%. This has provided savvy buyers a sweet spot to reexamine the home search process with more inventory, widening their choices.”
And like Matt Vernon, Head of Retail Lending at Bank of America, notes:
“Rather than waiting it out for a rate that they like better, hopeful homebuyers should assess their personal financial situation—if the house is right for them, and the upfront and monthly payments are affordable, it could be the right chance to make a move.”
Bottom Line
If moving at today’s rate scares you, remember, waiting doesn’t always pay off. Once rates dip below 6%, as some experts project they’ll do next year, more buyers (and higher prices) will be back.
So, don’t be afraid of today’s mortgage rates. Because if you’re ready, this might just be your chance to make a move before the market wakes up again.
The $280 Shift in Affordability Every Homebuyer Should Know
If you paused your plans to move because of high rates or prices, it may finally be time to take a second look at your numbers. Affordability is improving in 39 of the top 50 markets, according to First American. And that’s the 5th straight month where buying a home has started to get a little bit easier.
Let’s break this down into real dollars, so you can see the difference this could make for you (and your move).
Monthly Payments Are Coming Down
One of the clearest signs of this shift is in monthly payments. The latest data from Redfin shows mortgage payments on a median-priced home are now $283 lower than they were just a few months ago (see graph below):
This kind of monthly savings adds up fast, and totals nearly $3,400 over the course of a year.
While this isn’t enough to completely change the affordability game overnight, think about it this way. When you’re putting together a homebuying budget, a few hundred dollars could be the difference between being comfortable buying and feeling like money’s a bit tight.
And from a home-search perspective, it could even be enough to change the price point you can look at. According to Redfin:
“A borrower with a $3,000 monthly budget can now afford a $468,000 home, about $22,000 more than in June.”
And that’s a big deal if you haven’t found a home you love in your price range yet. It gives you a little more flexibility to find the one that’s right for you.
Either way, that’s a big win.
What’s Behind the Shift?
Two key factors are working in your favor right now:
- Mortgage rates have eased from their high earlier this year
- Home price growth is slowing in many markets
Both of those things help your bottom line and give you a bit of breathing room if you’re buying a home. As Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE Mortgage Technology, says:
“The recent pullback in rates has created a tailwind for both homebuyers and existing borrowers. We’re seeing affordability at a 2.5-year high . . .”
Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer or someone looking to move-up into a bigger house, the shifts happening this year could make your move possible. Connect with a trusted agent or lender to see what your monthly payment would look like at today’s rates.
For you, the savings could be the difference between “not yet” and “let’s go.”
Bottom Line
Affordability is improving in many markets. And that resets the math on your move.
If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines, this is your cue to start looking again. Connect with a local agent or trusted lender to run the numbers together so you can get a rough estimate of how much more buying power you may have than you did just a few months ago.
2026 Housing Market Outlook
After a couple of years where the housing market felt stuck in neutral, 2026 may be the year things shift back into gear. Expert forecasts show more people are expected to move – and that could open the door for you to do the same.
More Homes Will Sell
With all of the affordability challenges at play over the past few years, many would-be movers pressed pause. But that pause button isn’t going to last forever. There are always people who need to move. And experts think more of them will start to act in 2026 (see graph below):
What’s behind the change? Two key factors: mortgage rates and home prices. Let’s dive into the latest expert forecasts for both, so you can see why more people are expected to move next year.
Mortgage Rates Could Continue To Ease
The #1 thing just about every buyer has been looking for is lower mortgage rates. And after peaking near 7% earlier this year, rates have started to ease.
The latest forecasts show that could continue throughout 2026, but it won’t be a straight line down (see graph below):
There’s a saying: when rates go up, they take the escalator. But when they come down, they take the stairs. And that’s an important thing to remember. It’ll be a slow and bumpy process.
Expect modest improvement in mortgage rates over the next year but be ready for some volatility. There will be volatility along the way as new economic data comes out. Just don’t let it distract you from the bigger picture: the overall trend will be a slight decline. Forecasts say we could hit the low 6s, or maybe even the high 5s.
And remember, there doesn’t have to be a big drop for you to feel a change. Even a smaller dip helps your bottom line.
If you compare where rates are now to when they were at 7% earlier this year, you’re already saving hundreds on your future mortgage payment. And that’s a really good thing. It’s enough to make a real difference in affordability for some buyers.
Home Price Growth Will Be Moderate
What about prices? On a national scale, forecasts say they’re still going to rise, just not by a lot. With rates down from their peak earlier this year, more buyers will re-enter the market. And that increased demand will keep some upward pressure on prices nationally – and prevent prices from tumbling down.
So, even though some markets are already seeing slight price declines, you can rest easy that a big crash just isn’t in the cards. Thanks to how much prices rose over the last 5 years, even the markets seeing declines right now are still up compared to just a few years ago.
Of course, price trends will depend on where you are and what’s happening in your local market. Inventory is a big driver in why some places are going to see varying levels of appreciation going forward. But experts agree we’ll see prices grow at the national level (see graph below):
This is yet another good sign for buyers and overall affordability. While prices will still go up nationally, it’ll be at a much more sustainable pace. And that predictability makes it easier to plan your budget. It also gives you peace of mind that prices won’t suddenly skyrocket overnight.
Bottom Line
After a quieter couple of years, 2026 is expected to bring more movement – and more opportunity. With sales projected to rise, mortgage rates trending lower, and price growth slowing down, the stage is set for a healthier, more active market.
So, the big question: will you be one of the movers making 2026 your year?
Connect with an agent if you want to get ready.
Why Experts Say Mortgage Rates Should Ease Over the Next Year
You want mortgage rates to fall – and they’ve started to. But is it going to last? And how low will they go?
Experts say there’s room for rates to come down even more over the next year. And one of the leading indicators to watch is the 10-year treasury yield. Here’s why.
The Link Between Mortgage Rates and the 10-Year Treasury Yield
For over 50 years, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has closely followed the movement of the 10-year treasury yield, which is a widely watched benchmark for long-term interest rates (see graph below):
When the treasury yield climbs, mortgage rates tend to follow. And when the yield falls, mortgage rates typically come down.
It’s been a predictable pattern for over 50 years. So predictable, that there’s a number experts consider normal for the gap between the two. It’s known as the spread, and it usually averages about 1.76 percentage points, or what you sometimes hear as 176 basis points.
The Spread Is Shrinking
Over the past couple of years, though, that spread has been much wider than normal. Why? Think of the spread as a measure of fear in the market. When there’s lingering uncertainty in the economy, the gap widens beyond its usual norm. That’s one of the reasons why mortgage rates have been unusually high over the past few years.
But here’s a sign for optimism. Even though there’s still some lingering uncertainty related to the economy, that spread is starting to shrink as the path forward is becoming clearer (see graph below):
And that opens the door for mortgage rates to come down even more. As a recent article from Redfin explains:
“A lower mortgage spread equals lower mortgage rates. If the spread continues to decline, mortgage rates could fall more than they already have.”
The 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Expected To Decline
It’s not just the spread, though. The 10-year treasury yield itself is also forecast to come down in the months ahead. So, when you combine a lower yield with a narrowing spread, you have two key forces potentially pushing mortgage rates down going into next year.
This long-term relationship is a big reason why you see experts currently projecting mortgage rates will ease, with a fringe possibility they’ll hit the upper 5s toward the end of next year.
Here’s how it works. Take the 10-year treasury yield, which is sitting at about 4.09% at the time this article is being written, and then add the average spread of 1.76%. From there, you’d expect mortgage rates to be around 5.85% (see graph below):
But remember, all of that can change as the economy shifts. And know for certain that there will be ups and downs along the way.
How these dynamics play out will depend on where the economy, the job market, inflation, and more go from here. But the 2026 outlook is currently expected to be a gradual mortgage rate decline. And as of now, things are starting to move in the right direction.
Bottom Line
Keeping up with all of these shifts can feel overwhelming. That’s why having an experienced agent or lender on your side matters. They’ll do the heavy lifting for you.
If you want real-time updates on mortgage rates, reach out to a trusted agent or lender who can keep you in the loop and help you plan your next move.